Among the most complex problems in the post-Iraqi elections, which are taking place today, Sunday, is the sharp competition and differences between the "Shiite" political blocs in the new parliament over the nomination of the candidate for the position of prime minister, the highest executive authority that controls The bulk of the state decision.
The most numerous bloc
The election date is preceded by a wide debate between the Shiite blocs, each of which promotes, for the purposes of electoral competition and winning the public, as the bloc that will form the new government.
After the election results are announced, the electoral lists will move towards forming alliances from different electoral lists, leading to the formation of the “most numerous parliamentary bloc” authorized to nominate its candidate for prime minister.
According to the interpretation of the Federal Supreme Court, “the most numerous parliamentary bloc,” according to the constitution, means the parliamentary bloc that was formed after the elections from two or more lists, and its seats, after taking the constitutional oath, became the “most numerous parliamentary bloc” than the rest of the other blocs.
To gain the confidence of the House of Representatives, the candidate for prime minister needs to vote an absolute majority on the names of the ministers individually, that is, half of the number of members of the House of Representatives plus one (165 + 1).
Several political blocs expressed their desire to nominate their candidate for prime minister at the stage after the election results were announced.
Among these blocks; The State of Law coalition, headed by Nuri al-Maliki, the former Prime Minister, for two consecutive terms (2006 to 2014), and the “Fatah” coalition headed by Hadi al-Amiri, Secretary-General of the Badr Organization (the military wing and closest ally of Tehran).
In addition to an unnamed candidate for the Sadrist movement.
The Sadrist Bloc and the Challenges of Winning
The Sadrist bloc promotes that it will win the largest number of seats that qualifies it to nominate its candidate to head the new government, but in recent days it retreated, adopting the push for the "independent candidate", after realizing the difficulty of getting past the stage of obtaining the votes of the absolute majority of members of the House of Representatives. If she succeeds in forming the “most numerous parliamentary bloc” and naming its candidate for prime minister, this is a possibility.
Despite the expectations that it will obtain more seats than other Shiite lists, it is difficult for the Sadrist bloc to form a coalition that would qualify it to reach the 166 seats needed to give confidence to the new government, for many reasons.
Leaders in the Sadrist movement believe that a government after the early elections will have an independent prime minister.
Therefore, it is expected that the Sadrist movement will continue its support for the nomination of an “independent candidate” close to him or his supporters to deprive the competing parliamentary blocs of the opportunity to form a government in the future.
Neither the constitution nor the election law requires that the prime minister be a member of the House of Representatives, or the head of a party, movement, or political current.
For reasons related to the “real” differences between the four main Shiite electoral lists (the Sadrist bloc, the Al-Fateh coalition, the State of Law coalition, and the National State Forces coalition), it will be possible to form the most numerous parliamentary bloc, from one or more coalitions, and nominate its candidate for prime minister in The first stage, but at a later stage it seems impossible to obtain a quorum, that is, an “absolute majority” of the number of members of the new council (165 + 1) to give confidence to the government of the new prime minister.
The failure of the “largest bloc” is an opportunity for Al-Kazemi
The nomination of Mustafa Al-Kazemi, as an independent candidate for prime minister, depends on the failure of the "most numerous parliamentary bloc", which will be announced in the first session of the House of Representatives and the nomination of its candidate, and the failure of this candidate to obtain an absolute majority of the votes of parliament members to give confidence to his new government.
Where the “expected” failure will lead to resorting to the option of a “consensual” candidate from outside the political blocs, with a greater probability of renaming Al-Kazemi.
Especially since the man has fulfilled and fulfilled almost all his promises.
Al-Kazemi had, since the beginning of his accession to the premiership, represented the protest movement, which forced his predecessor, Adel Abdul-Mahdi, to resign after his inability to protect the protesters, and to bring those responsible for their killing to justice.
Everyone agrees that Al-Kazemi is the only prime minister whose term has passed, despite its shortness (2020-2021), and despite its specific tasks, without a “real” clash or deep disagreements with one or more parliamentary blocs.
Al-Kazemi managed to create a balance between his close relations with Iran and the leaders of the “influential factions” in the Popular Mobilization on the one hand, and on the other hand, his long-term relations with the United States, with which he negotiated the withdrawal from Iraq in response to the parliament’s decision, and he succeeded in this matter.
The Iranian gate and the lack of American objection
Al-Kazemi and others realize that his nomination for the prime ministership can only pass through the gate of Tehran’s approval, and Washington’s non-objection.
The candidate for prime minister also needs an initial acceptance and blessing from the Najaf reference point.
But Al-Kazemi will face the challenge of being able to convince the other political blocs and parties that contributed to passing his nomination for the prime ministership in May 2020, and renaming him to this position for the next four years.
These blocs and parties have become convinced that Al-Kazemi, in fact, will be a candidate for the Sadrist bloc without an official announcement.
In contrast, there are possibilities to increase the chances of renewal for Al-Kazemi through regional and international support for him, after he has proven his success in creating a balance in his personal relations, and Iraq’s relations with both the United States and Iran, and they are major actors in naming prime ministerial candidates, as happened in the sessions. the previous four elections.
Today the elections will end, so what next? The expected failure of the “largest bloc” strongly suggests the possibility of renaming Al-Kazemi
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Among the most complex problems in the post-Iraqi elections, which are taking place today, Sunday, is the sharp competition and differences between the "Shiite" political blocs in the new parliament over the nomination of the candidate for the position of prime minister, the highest executive authority that controls The bulk of the state decision.
The most numerous bloc
The election date is preceded by a wide debate between the Shiite blocs, each of which promotes, for the purposes of electoral competition and winning the public, as the bloc that will form the new government.
After the election results are announced, the electoral lists will move towards forming alliances from different electoral lists, leading to the formation of the “most numerous parliamentary bloc” authorized to nominate its candidate for prime minister.
According to the interpretation of the Federal Supreme Court, “the most numerous parliamentary bloc,” according to the constitution, means the parliamentary bloc that was formed after the elections from two or more lists, and its seats, after taking the constitutional oath, became the “most numerous parliamentary bloc” than the rest of the other blocs.
To gain the confidence of the House of Representatives, the candidate for prime minister needs to vote an absolute majority on the names of the ministers individually, that is, half of the number of members of the House of Representatives plus one (165 + 1).
Several political blocs expressed their desire to nominate their candidate for prime minister at the stage after the election results were announced.
Among these blocks; The State of Law coalition, headed by Nuri al-Maliki, the former Prime Minister, for two consecutive terms (2006 to 2014), and the “Fatah” coalition headed by Hadi al-Amiri, Secretary-General of the Badr Organization (the military wing and closest ally of Tehran).
In addition to an unnamed candidate for the Sadrist movement.
The Sadrist Bloc and the Challenges of Winning
The Sadrist bloc promotes that it will win the largest number of seats that qualifies it to nominate its candidate to head the new government, but in recent days it retreated, adopting the push for the "independent candidate", after realizing the difficulty of getting past the stage of obtaining the votes of the absolute majority of members of the House of Representatives. If she succeeds in forming the “most numerous parliamentary bloc” and naming its candidate for prime minister, this is a possibility.
Despite the expectations that it will obtain more seats than other Shiite lists, it is difficult for the Sadrist bloc to form a coalition that would qualify it to reach the 166 seats needed to give confidence to the new government, for many reasons.
Leaders in the Sadrist movement believe that a government after the early elections will have an independent prime minister.
Therefore, it is expected that the Sadrist movement will continue its support for the nomination of an “independent candidate” close to him or his supporters to deprive the competing parliamentary blocs of the opportunity to form a government in the future.
Neither the constitution nor the election law requires that the prime minister be a member of the House of Representatives, or the head of a party, movement, or political current.
For reasons related to the “real” differences between the four main Shiite electoral lists (the Sadrist bloc, the Al-Fateh coalition, the State of Law coalition, and the National State Forces coalition), it will be possible to form the most numerous parliamentary bloc, from one or more coalitions, and nominate its candidate for prime minister in The first stage, but at a later stage it seems impossible to obtain a quorum, that is, an “absolute majority” of the number of members of the new council (165 + 1) to give confidence to the government of the new prime minister.
The failure of the “largest bloc” is an opportunity for Al-Kazemi
The nomination of Mustafa Al-Kazemi, as an independent candidate for prime minister, depends on the failure of the "most numerous parliamentary bloc", which will be announced in the first session of the House of Representatives and the nomination of its candidate, and the failure of this candidate to obtain an absolute majority of the votes of parliament members to give confidence to his new government.
Where the “expected” failure will lead to resorting to the option of a “consensual” candidate from outside the political blocs, with a greater probability of renaming Al-Kazemi.
Especially since the man has fulfilled and fulfilled almost all his promises.
Al-Kazemi had, since the beginning of his accession to the premiership, represented the protest movement, which forced his predecessor, Adel Abdul-Mahdi, to resign after his inability to protect the protesters, and to bring those responsible for their killing to justice.
Everyone agrees that Al-Kazemi is the only prime minister whose term has passed, despite its shortness (2020-2021), and despite its specific tasks, without a “real” clash or deep disagreements with one or more parliamentary blocs.
Al-Kazemi managed to create a balance between his close relations with Iran and the leaders of the “influential factions” in the Popular Mobilization on the one hand, and on the other hand, his long-term relations with the United States, with which he negotiated the withdrawal from Iraq in response to the parliament’s decision, and he succeeded in this matter.
The Iranian gate and the lack of American objection
Al-Kazemi and others realize that his nomination for the prime ministership can only pass through the gate of Tehran’s approval, and Washington’s non-objection.
The candidate for prime minister also needs an initial acceptance and blessing from the Najaf reference point.
But Al-Kazemi will face the challenge of being able to convince the other political blocs and parties that contributed to passing his nomination for the prime ministership in May 2020, and renaming him to this position for the next four years.
These blocs and parties have become convinced that Al-Kazemi, in fact, will be a candidate for the Sadrist bloc without an official announcement.
In contrast, there are possibilities to increase the chances of renewal for Al-Kazemi through regional and international support for him, after he has proven his success in creating a balance in his personal relations, and Iraq’s relations with both the United States and Iran, and they are major actors in naming prime ministerial candidates, as happened in the sessions. the previous four elections.